Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 13 July 2026, with the settlement window closing at noon UTC. The market currently implies a 0% probability for any outcome, a stark divergence from Polymarket data where 31°C leads at 37% and 30°C holds 24% [2]. This pricing anomaly suggests a liquidity gap or a technical freeze rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded, as July forecasts for Haneda routinely show daily highs between 24°C and 33°C (76°–91°F) [1].

Historical context frames the 0% implied probability as statistically improbable given Japan’s recent heat trends. In late July 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City, Hyogo Prefecture, shattering previous records [4]. While Haneda typically remains cooler than inland western Japan, July 12, 2026, saw a confirmed market consensus of 29°C for the same location [3]. The absence of a leading outcome price here contradicts the established thermal baseline for mid-July in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground resolution source directly for the official daily high, as the contract settles strictly on this specific dataset [2]. Key catalysts include real-time weather updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which tracks regional heatwaves that could push Haneda toward the 30–32°C range [5]. With settlement tied to USDC and on-chain mechanics, any delay in data ingestion from the external API could impact final resolution timing, making direct verification of the RJTT station record essential before the 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

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In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.