Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s midday heat on 2 August will be settled by the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, not by a citywide average, so the key question is whether the day peaks in the low 30s Celsius or pushes into a hotter extreme. Seasonal context points to a very warm baseline: Tokyo’s August average high is around 31°C, while broader climate datasets show August is typically the hottest month, with rare extremes well above 34°C and records near 37–39°C in the city.[1][2][3][9]

A 0% YES price implies the market is currently discounting any upside shock in the actual Haneda reading. That is a useful read on positioning, but the contract settles on a single station observation, so local cloud cover, sea breeze, and afternoon showers matter more than national averages. Historical August data show Tokyo’s daily highs usually sit in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with the upper tail possible but not common; if the day remains near the forecast range of roughly 82°F to 90°F, the likely settlement bands are the lower Celsius buckets rather than the hottest ones.[5][6][7]

The main catalysts are the short-term weather guidance and any intraday shift in humidity, precipitation, or wind that can cap the maximum temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. Traders should watch the Haneda-specific history page on Wunderground for the live daily high, because that is the stated resolution source, and compare it with Tokyo forecasts that currently centre on highs around 82°F to 90°F. In crypto terms, this is a straightforward USDC-settled event where price can react abruptly to a single revised forecast; BTC and ETH macro moves are only relevant if they shift risk appetite, not the weather itself.[7][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.