Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement in USDC against the specified temperature range. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing near-zero conviction in extreme heat or have not yet engaged with the market ahead of the settlement window closing on 12 August at 12:00 UTC.

August in Tokyo historically peaks between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events pushing above 37°C in roughly one year per decade. The 2010 heatwave saw 39.9°C recorded; the summer of 2023 brought sustained temperatures above 35°C across multiple days. Current crowd positioning at 0% implies either that the implied range sits outside historical norms or that liquidity has not yet formed around plausible outcomes. Traders should cross-reference Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts alongside Wunderground's historical station data to calibrate expectations against the specific Haneda measurement point, which can differ from central Tokyo readings by 1–2°C depending on urban heat island effects and wind patterns.

The primary catalyst remains the East Asian monsoon pattern and any Pacific typhoon activity in early August 2026. Japan's weather agency typically issues extended forecasts by late July; traders monitoring NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for North Pacific pressure systems and sea-surface temperature anomalies will gain early signals. Funding rates on weather-linked derivatives remain thin, but spot USDC liquidity on btc-prediction.bet will determine entry and exit costs as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.