Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces consistent daily maximum temperatures throughout the year, with May sitting in the latter half of the southwest monsoon season. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data feed from Singapore Changi Airport, the nation's primary meteorological station, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on 26 May 2026. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range clarification or treating this as a calibration exercise ahead of the settlement window.

Historical May temperatures at Changi typically peak between 32–34°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C. The station's 40-year dataset shows only occasional days surpassing 34°C during this month, establishing a baseline for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine resolution risk. Comparable May 26 data points from prior years would anchor expectations, though single-day weather variance remains substantial enough to warrant meaningful probability spreads across the available ranges.

Traders should monitor the Singapore Meteorological Service's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous weather patterns emerging in late May 2026, particularly shifts in monsoon intensity or heat dome formation across Southeast Asia. USDC settlement on btc-prediction.bet means positions carry no exchange basis risk once resolved, though funding dynamics on correlated weather derivatives or regional climate-sensitive assets may signal institutional positioning ahead of the settlement date. Real-time Wunderground data availability in the days preceding resolution will allow final calibration as actual conditions materialise.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.