Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

Singapore's equatorial climate produces consistently high temperatures year-round, with May typically amongst the warmest months before the southwest monsoon season establishes itself. The settlement mechanism relies on historical temperature data from Singapore Changi Airport Station, recorded via Wunderground, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026. The current 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity; given Singapore's narrow seasonal variance, traders should examine whether the market's range bins are calibrated to historical May maximums or whether liquidity concentration has skewed pricing.

May temperatures at Changi Airport historically cluster between 32–34°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 35°C except during anomalous heat events. The 2015 El Niño episode and the 2016 Indian Ocean Dipole both produced elevated readings across Southeast Asia, though Singapore's maritime setting moderates extremes. Comparable May datasets from the past decade show the 95th percentile near 34.5°C, establishing a baseline against which outlier scenarios should be weighted.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Indian Ocean Dipole index and equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures from NOAA through early 2026, as these drive regional heat anomalies. Rainfall patterns in May also influence daily maximums; drier conditions typically correlate with higher peaks. The settlement window's noon UTC cutoff means Singapore's afternoon peak—usually 14:00–15:00 local time—falls within the measurement window, eliminating timing arbitrage concerns around data collection methodology.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.