Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

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Market context

Shenzhen will experience late-spring weather on 25 May 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The resolution source pulls directly from Wunderground's historical data feed, which aggregates official meteorological readings from this major transport hub in Guangdong Province. Settlement occurs in USDC at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, once the daily maximum is finalised and publicly available.

Historical May temperatures at Shenzhen Bao'an show consistent patterns that anchor baseline expectations. Over the past decade, late-May highs have ranged between 28–34°C, with the station recording temperatures above 32°C on roughly 60% of days in this window. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific sub-range outcome or minimal liquidity across all temperature brackets. Comparable years—particularly 2023 and 2024—recorded highs of 31–33°C in late May, providing empirical reference points for traders assessing probability distributions across the available bands.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in April and early May 2026, as pre-monsoon atmospheric conditions directly influence daily maxima. South China's transition into the southwest monsoon season typically begins in May, which can suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time forecasts from meteorological authorities and Wunderground's own 10-day outlook, updated regularly through mid-May, will signal whether anomalous heat or cooler-than-typical conditions are developing. Any significant tropical system activity in the South China Sea during late May could materially shift outcomes downward.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.