Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this temperature contract, with resolution anchored to the highest reading recorded at Pudong International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the same date, creating a hard deadline for Wunderground historical data capture. USDC settlement follows standard on-chain mechanics once the underlying temperature figure is confirmed and mapped to the corresponding range bracket.

Late May in Shanghai typically sits within the pre-monsoon transition period, with historical highs clustering between 28–32°C depending on atmospheric patterns and moisture availability. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller participation. Comparable May 28 readings from prior years show variability: 2023 recorded 29.4°C, whilst 2022 peaked at 31.2°C, indicating meaningful spread across similar dates. This historical variance should inform positioning around mid-to-upper range brackets rather than extremes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña signals affecting East Asian weather patterns through spring 2026. Real-time updates from Wunderground's Shanghai station feed will become material in the final 48 hours before settlement. Funding conditions on crypto markets may shift positioning if macro volatility spikes near the resolution window, though temperature contracts typically exhibit lower correlation to BTC/ETH spot moves than derivatives tied to economic data or geopolitical events.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.