Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest daily temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and settled in USDC against Wunderground historical data. Late May in Shanghai typically sees maximum temperatures between 28–32°C as the city transitions into early summer, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, creating a hard deadline for resolution once the day's peak is recorded.

Historical May temperature patterns at Shanghai Pudong show considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past decade, 25 May highs have ranged from 24°C to 34°C, with the median around 29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or treating this as a baseline calibration before seasonal models converge. Early May 2026 weather patterns and any anomalous pressure systems developing in late April will be critical signals; traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and regional monsoon onset timing, which typically accelerates warming across the Yangtze River Delta in late May.

Catalysts include the East Asian summer monsoon's progression—delayed or accelerated onset shifts temperature expectations materially—and any subtropical high-pressure systems anchoring over central China in the weeks prior. Traders tracking macro crypto volatility should note that sustained risk-off sentiment occasionally correlates with reduced participation in niche weather markets, potentially widening spreads. USDC settlement mechanics mean positions carry minimal counterparty friction, though liquidity depth will determine execution quality for larger orders.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.