Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The key event is the day’s *highest recorded temperature* at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, which settles the market through Wunderground rather than an official Chinese forecast feed, so the relevant question is not the citywide average but the single peak reading at ZSPD during the settlement window. June is already a warm month there: WeatherSpark puts average daily highs at Shanghai Pudong International Airport around 77°F to 83°F in June, with the broader hot season beginning in mid-June and daily highs typically staying above 80°F[1][4].

The current **0% YES** pricing implies the crowd sees the specified temperature range as effectively out of reach, but that should be read against the fact that late-June Shanghai can still produce low- to mid-30s Celsius highs in hot, humid conditions[5]. Forecast products for the airport are already pointing to a hot day with rain and thunderstorms, with AccuWeather showing a 79°/74°F day and an afternoon storm risk, while the NOAA time series page for ZSPD shows a broad daytime high profile that can extend into the mid-80s °F later in the day[2][6]. For a weather market settled in USDC, the practical on-chain angle is that liquidity can stay thin until the last forecast updates, leaving price to move sharply if the observed airport high shifts by even a few degrees.

Traders should watch the evolution of the airport-specific forecast through the morning and early afternoon UTC, particularly any changes in thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, or precipitation intensity, because those factors can suppress the daily maximum even when the broader synoptic setup is hot. The important dependency is the station reading itself, not a city average, so nearby-airport or downtown Shanghai data only matters insofar as it helps anticipate the Pudong instrument’s peak. If broader crypto risk sentiment turns at the same time, funding and spot moves in BTC and ETH can affect how aggressively market participants recycle capital into short-dated prediction markets, but the settlement outcome here remains a weather print, not a macro call.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.