Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. Mid-June in Shanghai typically sees temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during early summer heat waves. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, creating a hard cutoff for the highest reading captured across the full calendar day at the designated weather station.

Historical June patterns at Shanghai Pudong show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, mid-June highs ranged from 26°C during cooler years to 37°C during anomalously warm periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in extreme confidence that the market's temperature brackets exclude realistic outcomes, or that liquidity remains sparse enough to distort the implied distribution. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically see probability mass concentrated across 28–34°C ranges for this location and season, with tail probabilities assigned to both cooler (22–27°C) and hotter (35°C+) scenarios.

Key variables include the East Asian monsoon pattern developing through early June and any tropical cyclone activity affecting the Yangtze River Delta region. China's meteorological service publishes 10-day forecasts around early June that traders should monitor; recent years have seen increased volatility in seasonal onset timing. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive pull for ZSPD station data, which occasionally experiences gaps or corrections. USDC settlement occurs post-resolution verification, with no funding-rate or spot-price dependencies typical of crypto-native markets.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.