Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical records from Incheon International Airport, the official settlement source. Late May in Seoul typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs averaging 24–26°C, though anomalous heat events can push temperatures several degrees above normal. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range of plausible outcomes.

Historical May data from Incheon shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur roughly once every three to five years during this period, whilst readings above 32°C remain rare. The 2018 heat wave pushed Seoul to 31°C in late May, and 2020 saw similar spikes. Current climate patterns and seasonal forecasts will matter considerably; if a high-pressure system settles over the Korean peninsula in the weeks preceding 26 May, traders should expect upward pressure on higher temperature bands. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning real-time weather data from Wunderground's Incheon station becomes the binding reference once finalised.

Traders monitoring this contract should track spring weather pattern announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration and watch for any Atlantic or Pacific teleconnection signals that might drive anomalous warmth into East Asia. USDC settlement mechanics on btc-prediction.bet mean positions resolve directly against fiat-equivalent spot pricing once Wunderground publishes final daily highs, with no conversion slippage between traditional weather data and on-chain execution.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.