Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 23 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with settlement in USDC against Wunderground historical data once the day concludes. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal patterns or treating this as a placeholder market pending resolution window activation.

Late May in Seoul typically falls within late spring conditions, with historical highs averaging 26–28°C at Incheon. The 2025 May dataset showed peak temperatures ranging from 24–29°C depending on weather systems, whilst 2024 saw comparable variability driven by early monsoon moisture and high-pressure ridges from the Pacific. These precedents establish a baseline: extreme heat above 32°C is rare for this date, whilst readings below 20°C occur only during anomalous cold fronts. The absence of trading activity at present reflects the market's distance from settlement; seasonal forecasting models typically gain precision within 10–14 days of the target date.

Traders should monitor the Asian weather outlook from late April onwards, particularly tracking the North Pacific subtropical high's positioning and any early-season tropical systems affecting the Korean Peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts fortnightly; their May 2026 seasonal bulletin will be material once released. Funding rates across major crypto exchanges show no unusual correlation to weather-derivative activity, indicating this contract remains a niche play rather than a macro hedge tied to broader BTC or ETH positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.