Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market tied to Seoul’s June heat. Historical data shows Seoul’s daytime maximums in June typically reach 26°C, with a range of 19–28°C and low humidity compared to midsummer months[1][2]. Recent monitoring confirms the highest maximum so far this June was 34.0°C on 19 June, suggesting extreme spikes are possible but not routine[9]. Given the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES, traders appear to expect temperatures will stay within standard bounds, consistent with long-term averages where June feels like an extended spring rather than intense summer heat[2].

Traders should watch for the onset of Korea’s monsoon season, which usually begins in late June and brings increased humidity and afternoon showers that can suppress peak temperatures[2]. Any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns, such as unseasonal heatwaves or early monsoon activity, could materially alter the day’s maximum reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground data from Incheon Airport, so real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration or AccuWeather forecasts for the region will be critical catalysts[3][4]. With USDC settlement and on-chain mechanics governing the contract, whale flows or funding rate changes in BTC/ETH markets may indirectly influence liquidity but are unlikely to affect the real-world temperature outcome directly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.