Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market settled in USDC, with the current crowd-implied probability of a “YES” resolution sitting at 0%. This reflects a strong market consensus that the temperature will not fall within the specified range, likely because recent June highs in Seoul have consistently remained below the threshold. Historical data shows daily highs in June typically rise from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, with the average solar energy gradually decreasing throughout the month[1].

The most relevant comparable cases include the three hottest summers on record—1994, 2018, and 2024—each breaking the previous high, with 2024 flagged by the World Meteorological Organisation as South Korea’s hottest summer ever[2]. Incheon’s own recent peak reached 91°F on 19 June 2026, just days before the settlement date[3]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave forecasts and Wunderground’s live temperature updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in the North Pacific high-pressure system could trigger unexpected spikes[5]. Any official announcement of extreme heat advisories in the Seoul-Incheon corridor would materially alter the probability, especially if funding rates on BTC or ETH futures indicate heightened speculative interest in weather-linked contracts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.