Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 13 June 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clarity on which range brackets the expected high for that date.

Seoul's June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 26–32°C at Incheon. The airport station, located west of central Seoul near the coast, experiences slightly cooler conditions than the city centre due to maritime influence. Comparable June 13 data from prior years shows variability: the Korea Meteorological Administration records indicate June highs in Seoul can fluctuate by 5–8°C depending on atmospheric patterns, monsoon onset timing, and whether high-pressure systems dominate. This seasonal range compression—narrower than spring or autumn—means traders should reference five-year historical bands rather than assuming uniform distributions.

The key catalyst is the East Asian summer monsoon progression, typically accelerating in mid-June. Forecasters at the Korea Meteorological Administration publish extended outlooks in early June that signal whether subtropical high pressure or monsoon moisture will prevail on the 13th. Additionally, any El Niño or La Niña phase active in early 2026 could shift baseline temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders should monitor KMA advisories and global sea-surface temperature anomalies from NOAA in the week before settlement, as these directly influence whether Seoul experiences a warm, dry day or cooler, humid conditions typical of pre-monsoon transition periods.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.