Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

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Market context

Seoul's August temperatures are among the year's most extreme, with the Incheon International Airport station—the official settlement reference—regularly recording daily highs between 28 and 35 degrees Celsius during mid-summer. August 13 falls within the peak heat period, when the Korean peninsula experiences sustained high pressure systems and humidity levels that can amplify apparent temperature well above the thermometer reading. Historical records from the past decade show Incheon's August 13 highs clustering between 29 and 33°C, though outlier years have pushed toward 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific range thresholds to activate or have not yet priced in seasonal baseline expectations for this date.

Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the binding resolution source—captures minute-by-minute readings rather than the rounded summary figures, meaning settlement hinges on granular data capture at Incheon airport rather than broader Seoul metropolitan estimates. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from late July onwards, as monsoon patterns and tropical system activity in early August can substantially alter mid-month thermal profiles. Recent summers have shown increased volatility in East Asian heat patterns; the 2023 Seoul heat dome pushed temperatures above historical norms, whilst 2024 saw more moderate August conditions. USDC settlement mechanics mean positions will lock on August 13 at 12:00 UTC, requiring traders to account for the nine-hour offset from Korean Standard Time when interpreting intraday temperature movements.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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