Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record its highest temperature on 24 May 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market resolves to a temperature range in Fahrenheit, and the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the range boundaries or awaiting clarity on which brackets are available for trading.

Historical May temperatures at Sea-Tac show considerable variability. The station's May average high sits around 70°F, but the month regularly produces days in the low-to-mid 70s, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 70s or low 80s. May 2021 saw a high of 79°F on the 24th; May 2015 recorded 77°F on the same date. The absence of trading activity at 0% suggests the available temperature ranges may not align with typical May patterns, or the market structure itself requires clarification before meaningful positions form. Traders should verify which specific ranges are offered—whether they span 65–70°F, 70–75°F, 75–80°F, and so forth—as this directly determines whether current probabilities reflect genuine weather expectations or simply inactive markets.

The National Weather Service Pacific Northwest office publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with increasing precision as May 24 approaches. Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern developments, particularly ridge-building systems that could drive temperatures above seasonal norms, or marine layer persistence that would suppress highs. USDC settlement mechanics on btc-prediction.bet mean resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's recorded data, making the source's measurement methodology the sole arbiter of outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.