Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Market context

The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 23 May 2026, measured in Celsius and settled in USDC once Wunderground finalises historical data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning readings are confirmed but before afternoon peaks are locked in.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show a median high of 19–21°C, with extremes ranging from 12°C in cooler years to 28°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a placeholder market. May 2026 falls within a period where European spring weather patterns remain volatile; the North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture anomalies from winter will influence whether high-pressure systems deliver above-normal warmth or Atlantic lows keep conditions temperate.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as May approaches, particularly any signals of early summer heat waves across northern Europe. Recent spring seasons have shown increasing frequency of 25°C+ days in the Île-de-France region by late May, though 2024 and 2025 data will provide the most relevant comparable benchmarks. On-chain activity in weather derivatives has historically spiked when institutional traders hedge agricultural or energy exposure, so funding rate movements on related temperature contracts may signal informed positioning ahead of settlement.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.