Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is the settlement source for this contract, so the day’s final high at that station is what matters, not the citywide forecast headline. The market is pricing a 0% chance of the 28°C-or-higher band implied by the current book, which is consistent with a cooler late-spring climatology rather than a genuine zero-probability weather outcome. Paris in May normally sits around 20°C average highs, but recent years have produced a wide spread, with daily highs commonly moving from the high teens into the mid-20s and occasional warm spikes into the low 30s.

Comparable Paris temperature markets earlier in the week were already leaning warmer than the long-run average, with the May 21 contract resolving at 24°C after the market had centred on the mid-20s. That matters because late-morning heating can still add a degree or two after the market closes at 12:00 UTC, especially if skies clear and a weak pressure ridge is in place. Historical Paris May data show that the upper-20s are plausible but not routine, so the main issue is whether the station’s early-day maximum has already been set by settlement rather than whether the afternoon later runs hotter.

Traders should watch the final Wunderground station update for Paris-Le Bourget, plus any short-range model shifts in cloud cover, wind and boundary-layer mixing through midday. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the key dependency is the temperature trend before then, not the full-day high shown elsewhere after the market closes. As this market settles in USDC on-chain, broader crypto conditions matter mainly at the margin: BTC and ETH spot volatility can affect risk appetite, but the contract itself is driven by the station reading and any late data finalisation on Wunderground.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on May 22? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.