Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Paris-Le Bourget Airport records a temperature exceeding the current 0% crowd-implied threshold for a 26 June 2026 heat spike, despite a historic heatwave plateauing near 40°C through Thursday 25 June. Historical precedents frame this probability: France recorded its hottest day ever on 23 June 2026 at 44.3°C, while Paris saw unprecedented May heat streaks with temperatures climbing to 37.8°C, suggesting extreme volatility is already embedded in the season’s pattern[3][5][6]. Cooling is expected to begin Friday 26 June, yet Météo-France notes this relief remains unconfirmed and gradual, leaving room for storms or residual peaks that could defy the 0% settlement[1].

Traders must monitor Météo-France’s hourly updates for Friday 26 June, as the cooling trend’s confirmation is the primary catalyst for resolving the market’s outcome[1]. Exchange spot funding rates and whale flows on BTC/ETH may correlate with macro volatility if extreme weather triggers broader market stress, though no direct crypto data source currently links temperature spikes to on-chain mechanics. Watch for announcements from local authorities regarding storm risks or heat advisories, as these dependencies could shift the probability from 0% if residual heat persists despite the expected cooldown[1]. Settlement via USDC on 2026-06-26T12:00:00Z will rely solely on Wunderground’s highest recorded temperature for Paris-Le Bourget, making real-time weather data the critical settlement dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on June 26? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.