Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing a heat wave as temperatures climb across Spain to Germany, with the city having already shattered its all-time high record of 40.4°C earlier this year [1]. Historical data for 13 July specifically shows a maximum of 37.4°C in 1911 and 36.7°C in 2022, while the absolute hottest July temperature in Paris history reached 41.9°C on 25 July 2019 [2][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of just 1% for a record-breaking high aligns with these precedents, suggesting the market views an extreme outlier event on this specific date as statistically improbable compared to the typical mid-July range.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Weather Underground for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, which serves as the definitive resolution source for this contract [9]. While the settlement is purely weather-based and settles in USDC on-chain, broader crypto macro conditions such as BTC funding rates or ETH whale flows could influence liquidity and position sizing during the final hours before the 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z deadline. Recent news confirms that deadly heat waves are gripping the region, meaning sudden spikes in temperature forecasts could act as a catalyst for rapid price adjustments if the 1% probability is mispriced relative to incoming meteorological data [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.