Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 30 May 2026 will determine the settlement outcome, with the reading taken from the National Weather Service data archived on Weather Underground. LaGuardia's official station provides the most reliable historical record for New York City's five boroughs, and the settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date.

New York's late May temperatures typically range between 75–85°F, with historical data from the past two decades showing that readings above 90°F occur in roughly 5–10% of years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating the market as a placeholder pending more granular temperature-band options. May 30th sits at the tail end of spring, before the sustained heat patterns that characterise June through August, making extreme readings less probable than mid-summer equivalents.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service extended forecast for the Northeast, typically updated five to ten days before the settlement date, which will refine expectations around high-pressure systems or early heat domes. Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase in late May will influence whether anomalous warmth reaches the region. USDC settlement on btc-prediction.bet will execute once Weather Underground's historical data confirms the daily maximum, eliminating ambiguity around measurement methodology or source discrepancies.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.