Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle this market into one of several Fahrenheit bands. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground's archive, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date. Traders are pricing this event at zero probability for any single outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the range.

New York's late-May climate typically produces highs between 75–85°F, though the city has recorded temperatures as high as 89°F and as low as 60°F during this calendar period over the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability reflects the difficulty in forecasting a specific temperature range six months in advance rather than genuine doubt about whether LaGuardia will record *some* maximum temperature. Historical May 24th data shows considerable variance year-to-year, making any single band a weak favourite without seasonal trend analysis or climate model consensus.

Traders monitoring this contract should track spring 2026 weather pattern forecasts as May approaches, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and tropical system activity in late April. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will provide actionable signals. USDC settlement ensures traders can exit positions without friction once the Weather Underground historical record finalises, though the long time horizon means funding rates and whale positioning may remain thin until late April 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.