Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range. Historical data frames this 0% stance as reasonable: New York’s average June high sits near 83°F, while the peak daily temperature for the month typically occurs on 26 June at 83.6°F [5]. Just yesterday, 23 June, the resolved market settled at 93–94°F, an outlier that skewed recent sentiment but does not reflect the norm for mid-June [1]. Climatological records show yesterday’s maximum was only 75°F, reinforcing that sustained extremes above 90°F are rare before late June [3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which publish confirmed highs within hours of sunrise [3]. A key catalyst is the upcoming heat advisory schedule from the New York City Office of Emergency Management, which often precedes temperature spikes above 85°F [6]. Additionally, whale flows in BTC and ETH futures funding rates may signal macro risk appetite that correlates with speculative positioning on weather contracts, as seen in recent USDC-settled prediction markets where funding rates exceeded 0.1% on major exchanges [7]. Watch Wunderground’s real-time updates for KLGA, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in the forecasted high [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.