Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded and settled against Wunderground's historical database, with resolution occurring at midday UTC. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete price discovery or that traders are awaiting additional context before committing capital. Settlement will occur in USDC on-chain, with the winning temperature range determined by the station's official daily maximum reading.

New York's June climate patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from 2015–2024 reveals June 11 highs ranging from 72°F to 88°F at LaGuardia, with a median around 78°F. The 0% crowd probability may reflect uncertainty about which specific temperature bands the market operator has defined, or traders hedging against early-season volatility. Comparable weather markets on crypto platforms typically see meaningful participation once temperature ranges are clearly delineated and traders can assess seasonal normals against current atmospheric conditions.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast and Atlantic hurricane tracking will shape near-term expectations as June approaches. Any anomalous warming patterns or tropical system activity in late May could shift probabilities materially. Traders should monitor NOAA's seasonal outlook updates and real-time atmospheric data from late May onwards, as these will provide the most actionable signals for positioning. The settlement window's noon UTC cutoff means LaGuardia's final recorded high must be captured before midday, making early-morning temperature readings less relevant to final resolution.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.