Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

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Market context

LaGuardia’s official hourly data showed a warm but not extreme late-summer pattern on 25 August, with the observed temperature already around 78°F at 20:00 EDT and a six-hour high of 80.1°F earlier in the evening. The market’s 0% YES implies a range that excludes the eventual NOAA peak, so any late-afternoon or early-evening move into the low 80s would matter more than overnight cooling.

The main frame here is historical August behaviour rather than a binary weather shock: LaGuardia’s daily forecasts for the date were clustered around the upper 70s to low 80s, and the National Weather Service described sunny conditions with highs in the lower 80s and west winds of 5 to 10 mph. That profile usually leaves the settlement outcome dependent on whether the day tops out near 80°F or nudges a point or two higher before the afternoon eases. On-chain, this kind of contract settles in USDC, so the path is mostly about terminal data rather than intraday mark-to-market, with no direct BTC or ETH linkage unless broader crypto risk appetite is moving prediction-market liquidity.

Catalysts are straightforward: the only relevant driver is the final NOAA hourly series for KLGA on 25 August, especially the “Temp” readings under the hourly data view that the market uses for resolution. In broader crypto, BTC and ETH funding were positive in mid-August, with ETH notably more bullish than BTC in recent data, but that matters here mainly as a liquidity backdrop rather than a weather input. If spot volatility or whale flows affect exchange balances, the channel is indirect and secondary to the published airport observations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on August 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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