Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 August 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity and participation at present. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, with USDC payouts determined by which temperature range contains the recorded high.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show a median daily high around 82–84°F, with extremes ranging from 68°F to 102°F across the past three decades. The 1999 heat wave pushed readings to 102°F; conversely, cooler Augusts have seen highs in the low 70s. The 0% probability on the current range likely reflects either an outlier expectation or sparse order flow, since any plausible August temperature at LaGuardia falls within meteorologically normal bounds. Traders should examine which specific temperature bracket is being priced out to identify where conviction lies.

Catalysts include seasonal climate patterns and any Atlantic tropical systems that might influence northeastern US weather in mid-August 2026. The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor those releases as mid-August approaches. Historical volatility in August temperatures—driven by occasional heat domes or Atlantic moisture—means the market may see sharp repricing once deterministic forecasts emerge. Early-August weather data and any El Niño or La Niña signals from NOAA will inform medium-range confidence.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on August 17? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.