Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest observed temperature at LaGuardia Airport** during the day, with settlement tied to the Weather Underground Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low display. With the market currently priced at **2% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying an extreme outcome in the top bucket is very unlikely, and that is consistent with a normal late-summer New York high near the mid-80s rather than a record-chasing spike[6][8]. Forecast guidance from AccuWeather points to a high around **89–90°F** for New York on 10 August, which sits near the middle of the listed market ranges and does not, on its own, imply a breakout into the highest brackets[1][6][13].

For context, August 10 has produced a wide spread in past New York City heat, but the long-run average high is about **84°F**, while notable extremes have reached the **upper 90s** in prior years[8]. That history matters because prediction markets on temperature usually concentrate around the forecast cluster, then reprice quickly if conditions support a late-day overshoot. In this contract, the settlement source and station-specific wording also matter: LaGuardia can differ from Central Park, and the market resolves off the highest value actually recorded in the daily table, so a brief afternoon peak is enough even if the summary page shows a lower figure[2][4][7].

Traders should watch the midday and afternoon weather updates, plus any convective or thunderstorm developments that could cap heating or briefly destabilise the boundary layer before the first post-midnight observation for 11 August appears. The contract description says revisions remain valid only until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so the final print can depend on how quickly Weather Underground updates the Daily Observations table after the day closes[7]. In crypto terms, settlement is effectively binary and USDC-denominated: when the weather print lands, the on-chain outcome is determined by the market’s final rule set rather than by intraday sentiment, funding, or broader BTC/ETH moves, though those macro flows can still affect liquidity and spread tightness around the event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in NYC on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.