Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once preliminary readings emerge. USDC settlement occurs post-finalisation, with no leverage or funding rate mechanics typical of perpetual contracts—this is a binary outcome tied to a specific temperature threshold cluster.

Historical May temperatures in Mexico City cluster tightly around 28–32°C, with the airport station recording consistent patterns across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal liquidity; comparable weather markets on crypto platforms typically see probability shifts only when seasonal anomalies or unusual atmospheric conditions warrant recalibration. May sits in Mexico City's dry season with stable high-pressure systems, reducing volatility compared to June–September monsoon months.

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) forecasts released 7–10 days prior, which inform airport-level readings. Any unusual upper-atmosphere patterns or heat dome activity across central Mexico would shift implied probabilities materially. Real-time Wunderground data becomes actionable from 06:00 UTC on 25 May; early morning readings typically underestimate daily highs, so final settlement hinges on afternoon peak temperatures. Cross-referencing multiple airport stations across Mexico City's metropolitan area provides context, though only the Benito Juárez station governs resolution.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.