Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 11 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius via Wunderground. With the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome at 0%, the market currently assumes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, likely reflecting expectations that Manila’s July highs remain within typical seasonal bounds rather than reaching extreme outliers.

Historically, Metro Manila’s July daytime temperatures average 31°C, with highs rarely exceeding 34°C under normal conditions [4]. The all-time record for the area stands at 38.8°C, logged at the PAGASA station near the airport in April 2024 [5]. While heat indices have recently reached 44°C in parts of Metro Manila due to humidity [3], actual air temperatures at the airport station have not breached 39°C in recorded history, suggesting the 0% probability aligns with the absence of precedent for extreme spikes in mid-July.

Traders should monitor Pagasa’s daily forecasts for tropical storm activity, as July typically sees 1.6 storm passages that can suppress temperatures [4]. A sudden shift in funding rates or whale flows on BTC/ETH could signal macro-driven liquidity shifts affecting on-chain USDC settlement volumes, though weather catalysts remain the primary dependency. Watch Pagasa’s Saturday morning updates for any anomalies in apparent temperature versus actual air temperature, as these often precede record-breaking days [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.