Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport and measured against historical August patterns for the city. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting data inputs or treating this as a low-conviction market ahead of the settlement window in August 2026.

August is Manila's peak monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C, though extreme heat events pushing above 34°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat waves or when tropical systems stall over the region. The 2016 heat wave saw Manila record 37.1°C; more recently, August 2023 peaked at 33.8°C. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at the airport station, which can differ from headline summaries—a material distinction for boundary-case outcomes near range thresholds.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) seasonal forecasts released in June and July 2026, which will signal whether El Niño or La Niña conditions favour above-normal heat. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, or conversely drive pre-storm heat spikes. Real-time tracking of any named systems approaching the Philippines in the week prior to settlement will be critical; PAGASA's official advisories typically update 48–72 hours before impact. The specificity of using airport-station data rather than city-wide averages means localised weather patterns at the airport's coastal location near Manila Bay will dominate the outcome.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Manila on August 17? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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