Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the peak reading at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the summary high, so traders should watch the intraday station data rather than the headline forecast. Early-day readings already point to a wet, humid setup: Weather Underground showed rain at 1:22 AM local time, while nearby forecasts called for morning showers, cloud and thunderstorms, with highs around 28–32°C and elevated humidity.[9][2][11]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is best read as a thin-liquidity starting point rather than a strong temperature signal, because August in Manila often produces highs in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius and the market only resolves to one discrete range. Comparable August climatology puts typical highs around 29°C, while forecast providers this morning clustered near 28–32°C, which means even a small shift in sun breaks or thunderstorm timing can move the day’s maximum into a different bucket.[8][10][1][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the midday evolution of the southwest monsoon, any PAGASA short-range update, and whether cloud cover clears long enough for solar heating before afternoon convection builds. PAGASA’s outlook has cited Metro Manila rains under the southwest monsoon, and its city forecast for 10 August pointed to a 26–32°C range with rain risk, which is consistent with a capped daytime peak if showers persist.[12][11] On-chain, the contract settles in **USDC**, so final pricing will mainly reflect weather data flow rather than BTC or ETH direction, though broader crypto volatility can still affect order-book depth and spreads if funding or spot moves trigger risk reduction elsewhere.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Manila on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

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UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

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