Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

Istanbul's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured by NOAA at Atatürk Airport (LTFM) and resolved in Celsius. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, after which the final hourly temperature record becomes locked for resolution. USDC settlement will follow once NOAA's data for all 24 hours has been finalised and verified against the specified source.

May temperatures in Istanbul historically cluster between 24–28°C as daily highs, with occasional spikes into the low 30s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or treating the market as illiquid. Comparable May weather events across Mediterranean cities show high variance year-to-year; 2023 saw Istanbul reach 29°C in late May, whilst cooler patterns in 2021 kept highs near 25°C. This seasonal volatility makes early-May weather pattern data material to positioning.

Traders should monitor European weather models and Turkish meteorological forecasts released in the two weeks prior to settlement. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures in April will signal whether May 25 falls within a warm or moderate pattern. Recent funding rate behaviour on crypto markets has shown correlation with risk-on sentiment, which sometimes influences participation in weather derivatives; however, this market's resolution depends entirely on NOAA's instrumental reading, independent of broader market conditions. Real-time data availability from LTFM will become critical in the final 48 hours.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.