Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must await official publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in Celsius to one decimal place before the market can resolve to its correct temperature band.

May in Hong Kong sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 29°C to 33°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market creation or that no traders have yet engaged with this specific contract. Comparable May temperature markets in subtropical regions show that extreme outliers—temperatures above 35°C or below 25°C—occur rarely but remain within the realm of possibility during unusual weather patterns or tropical systems.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate summaries on a fixed schedule, with data typically finalised within 24 hours of the observation period. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website directly for the official Daily Extract release, as this represents the sole authoritative settlement source. Unusual weather events in late May—including early-season tropical cyclones or anomalous high-pressure systems—could shift outcomes toward temperature extremes, though such events would require real-time meteorological tracking rather than advance prediction models.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.