Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest daily temperature on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, typically within days of the observation date. Settlement occurs in USDC against the temperature range containing that recorded maximum.

Hong Kong's May temperatures are shaped by pre-monsoon conditions and increasing solar intensity as summer approaches. Historical data shows May daily maxima typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to resolve—no outcome has been selected yet because the event lies in the future and the Observatory has not published finalised data. Once 25 May 2026 passes and the Observatory releases the Daily Extract, traders will be able to verify the exact temperature and the market will settle to the corresponding range.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories regarding anomalous weather patterns in spring 2026. Broader climate indices—including sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and the phase of the East Asian monsoon—influence May conditions in Hong Kong. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026, after which the Observatory typically requires 1–3 business days to finalise daily climate data. Any delays in Observatory publication could extend the resolution timeline, though this is uncommon for standard meteorological records.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.