Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Market context

On 23 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, typically within days of the observation date. Settlement occurs in USDC against the temperature range bracket that contains the recorded high.

Hong Kong's May climate sits at the cusp of late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28–32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting more granular range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending full bracket publication. May temperatures in Hong Kong show modest year-on-year variation; the Observatory's 30-year climate normals place the May mean daily maximum at approximately 30°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 26°C. Comparable May dates from recent years (2023–2025) cluster around 29–31°C, providing a baseline for assessing outlier scenarios tied to tropical systems or heat waves.

The key dependency is the finalisation of Observatory data, which typically occurs within 48–72 hours of the observation date. Traders should monitor late-May weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly tracking tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific and upper-level ridge positioning over southern China—both drivers of anomalous heat. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes 10-day forecasts and monthly outlooks; any signals of sustained high-pressure systems or tropical moisture intrusion would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets. Settlement timing remains contingent on data availability from the official source.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.