Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s official high on 10 August will be the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius, and that is the figure this market settles on once the daily extract is published. Because the resolution source records temperatures to one decimal place, the relevant outcome is the final published maximum rather than any intraday spike or neighbourhood reading elsewhere in the city.

The current **0% YES** crowd price fits a market that has already been overtaken by the tape: the Observatory reported **36.9°C on 9 August 2026**, described by multiple outlets as Hong Kong’s hottest day on record since 1884. That matters because this contract is not a “whether it gets hot” bet, but a specific date-and-source check; the new record has raised the bar for 10 August, even though Hong Kong’s August climatology still supports very high daytime maxima. The long-run normal maximum for 10 August is about **31.4°C**, so a settlement near record territory would require another exceptional heat event rather than routine summer weather.

For traders, the immediate catalysts are the Observatory’s official hourly readings through the day and the later publication of the Daily Extract, which can lag the live temperature display. Any change in the synoptic set-up — for example, a nearby tropical cyclone, subsidence, or a switch to cloud and showers — would matter more than the on-chain mechanics themselves, since settlement is simply an off-chain data feed mapped to USDC-style market resolution. In crypto terms, the contract may trade like a low-volatility weather binary, with price more likely to move on a fresh HKO update or a late-day forecast revision than on BTC or ETH momentum, unless broader risk appetite is unusually thin and flow becomes one-sided.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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