Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport station will be judged on the **highest temperature reached on 31 July**, with the market settling in USDC against the Wunderground history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. July in Guangzhou is normally very warm and humid, with average highs around 32-33°C and typical daily highs near 91-93°F, so the contract is really about whether the day lands in the usual mid-30s Celsius band or pushes materially above it.[2][5][15]

The current **0% YES** crowd price is easy to read against the climate baseline: on the available July history, highs in Guangzhou commonly sit in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and recent late-July examples include 33.4°C on 31 July in one history set and 34.4°C on 26 July, while broader records show July’s highest temperatures can reach the high 30s.[2][3][13] For this market, a zero-implied probability points to the crowd treating the contract as effectively mispriced or lacking attention, rather than as a view that Guangzhou will be cool.

Traders should watch the local daytime heating profile, cloud cover and rainfall around the airport, because a few degrees either side of noon can decide which Wunderground temperature bin is hit. In crypto terms, the main mechanical issue is on-chain settlement into USDC, so liquidity and positioning matter more than macro colour; if BTC or ETH risk sentiment is moving sharply, that can still affect odds via broader venue flows, but the contract’s outcome remains anchored to the airport reading rather than exchange prices.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.