Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will record its peak temperature for 10 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius band containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome suggests traders view the specific temperature range in question as virtually impossible, likely because historical data places typical July highs firmly between 30°C and 36°C.

Historical patterns frame this near-zero probability with clarity. July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 36°C. A similar market on 3 July 2026 priced a 34°C peak at 27.5%, indicating that exact temperature bands are treated as one-in-four shots rather than certainties. The current 0% implies the target range falls outside these established thermal norms, perhaps suggesting a threshold like 38°C or 25°C that contradicts the torrid summer reality where temperatures persist through August.

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and regional meteorological announcements for sudden shifts in cloud cover or thunderstorm activity, which can drastically alter peak temperatures. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high heat rather than anomalous cooling. While crypto macro factors like BTC funding rates or USDC liquidity flows influence on-chain trading volume, the settlement remains strictly tied to the physical weather event at the airport station, with no macro tie-in altering the temperature resolution itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.