Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 6 August will be set by the day’s top reading at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, with settlement based on the Wunderground history page for that station. August in Guangzhou is normally very hot and humid, with typical highs around 32–33°C and frequent rainfall, so the contract is mainly a read on whether the day gets to the low- to mid-30s or spikes higher under clearer skies.[10][15][16]

That is why a **0% YES** price looks extreme against climatology alone. Seasonal archives and monthly summaries show August highs near 33°C, while recent forecast pages have placed early-August highs in the low 90s Fahrenheit, which translates to roughly 33–34°C; those levels leave room for a 35–37°C outcome if the subtropical ridge strengthens and cloud cover stays limited.[2][12][13] In markets like this, traders usually treat the first half of the settlement window as the key price-discovery period, because the final print is what matters, not the headline daily maximum forecast.

For catalysts, watch the evolution of local convection and any shift in the East Asian summer monsoon pattern, since afternoon storms or earlier cloud build-up can cap the airport reading even when the broader city feels oppressive. On-chain, the main practical variable is whether BTC and ETH volatility pulls liquidity away from smaller weather books or whether risk appetite stays firm; funding and spot moves can affect how aggressively traders lean into low-probability tails, but the contract itself still settles in USDC on the reported temperature band. If live weather models continue to cluster around the mid-30s Celsius and airport observations track that range, the market can reprice quickly as the first daytime readings come in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

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