Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10?

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Market context

Guangzhou’s hottest reading on 10 August will be taken from the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table, so the key question is whether the airport station posts a peak in the 37–38°C area or pushes into the next band before the day is finalised. Current market pricing at **0% YES** implies traders see the listed outcome as effectively priced out, but the underlying weather setup is still one of late-summer heat rather than a cool-out. Forecasts for Guangzhou point to **hot, partly cloudy conditions**, with AccuWeather showing a day high near **100°F/38°C** and very warm overnight conditions, which is consistent with the city’s humid subtropical climate in August.[13][16][17]

The historical frame matters because Guangzhou’s August norms sit much lower than the present forecast level: WeatherAPI and travel climate guides put typical August highs around **33°C**, with heavy humidity and frequent rain, while recent observed days have already printed highs in the mid-30s °C.[3][16][17] That makes the market most sensitive to whether cloud cover or showers trim the afternoon peak, or whether strong insolation lets the airport station briefly overshoot forecast guidance. In comparable Guangzhou summer setups, the last degree or two often determines which settlement band wins, especially when the contract resolves to the highest observed value rather than a rounded daily summary.[10][12]

For traders, the main catalyst is the sequence of intraday observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, because the market settles off the recorded peak in the historical table, not the headline “Day High & Low” figure.[10][12] A late-morning or early-afternoon spike would matter most if the temperature is already close to the top of a band, while any rain or convective cloud during the heating window would reduce the chance of an upper-band print. On the crypto side, this is a straightforward USDC-settled weather contract, so the live price mostly reflects how participants weight the forecast against the exact resolution source; wider BTC or ETH moves are only relevant insofar as they affect overall risk appetite and liquidity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 10? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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