Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will determine settlement of this market. Resolution will draw from the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures, establishing a precise baseline for what constitutes the day's peak temperature in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, allowing traders to monitor real-time meteorological data as it arrives.

Chongqing's August climate presents a consistent thermal profile. Historical records show the city regularly records daily highs between 32–38°C during mid-August, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 40°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests markets are pricing in either an unusually cool August or uncertainty about the specific threshold ranges offered. Comparable August periods from 2020–2024 show that temperatures below 30°C occur in fewer than 5% of cases, whilst readings above 38°C appear in roughly 30–40% of years depending on monsoon activity and pressure systems.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and regional heat advisories issued in late July and early August 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during that period will materially influence East Asian summer temperatures. Funding rates on crypto markets often correlate with broader risk sentiment, which can affect participation in weather derivatives; sustained BTC strength typically correlates with higher retail engagement in prediction markets. Settlement relies entirely on Weather Underground's Jiangbei station data, making source availability the critical dependency for timely resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.