Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

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Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded at the Shuangliu International Airport Station and settled in USDC on btc-prediction.bet, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history for ZUUU.

Historically, mid-July in Chengdu sees afternoon highs frequently reaching 33–35°C, with extremes occasionally hitting 38°C during heatwaves, as seen in August 2022 when the city recorded 38.6°C [6][9]. A similar market on 6 July 2026 resolved at 37°C, confirming that temperatures in this period can exceed 35°C [10]. Given that July is one of Chengdu’s hottest months, with days often reaching up to 38°C and 20 rainy days on average, a 0% YES probability for any range below 35°C appears inconsistent with historical patterns [1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly updates for ZUUU on 13 July, as the settlement depends solely on the day’s peak reading [8]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, suggesting that extreme heat events remain plausible in the region [4]. With BTC and ETH funding rates currently neutral and whale flows subdued, the market’s USDC settlement offers a clean, on-chain exposure to real-world weather data without macro crypto volatility interference.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.