Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

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Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 11 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low display. Settlement occurs in USDC on the btc-prediction.bet platform following the close of the settlement window at 12:00 UTC that day.

Chengdu's August climate sits within a predictable band: historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 28–35°C during mid-August, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a technical misunderstanding of the market structure or an expectation that the specific temperature range offered does not align with realistic outcomes for that date. Comparable August days at Shuangliu station provide a baseline; examining 2015–2024 records reveals that temperatures above 36°C occur roughly once every two to three years in this window, whilst readings below 25°C are exceptionally rare.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, which typically offer 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the East Asian summer monsoon intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific—drive Chengdu's heat extremes. Real-time funding rates on perpetual contracts tied to commodity prices (particularly agricultural futures sensitive to Chinese weather) may signal market-wide positioning on regional climate stress, though direct causation to a single city's daily high remains loose.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

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