Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station in Busan will be measured and compared against predefined Celsius ranges. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the authoritative source, bypassing summary figures that may diverge from granular station data. Settlement occurs in USDC on the prediction market platform, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible highs.

Busan's August climate is remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical data from Gimhae shows August highs typically cluster between 28–32°C, with extreme readings above 34°C occurring in roughly one in five years during heat waves. The 0% implied probability on this market likely reflects traders' conviction that the settlement range excludes the most probable outcome, or that the market structure itself has created a mismatch between the offered bands and realistic meteorological expectations. Comparable August temperature markets in South Korean cities have resolved within tight bands; deviation requires either an unseasonable cold snap or an exceptional heat event.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns from late July onwards, as these drive Busan's August extremes. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day outlooks mid-August; any heat advisory or typhoon warning issued in the week prior to settlement will shift probabilities sharply. Funding rates on perpetual weather derivatives tied to East Asian temperature indices may signal institutional positioning ahead of the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.