Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

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Market context

Busan's August temperatures are among South Korea's most consistent and predictable. The city sits on the southeast coast where maritime influence moderates extremes, yet summer heat remains intense. Historical August highs at Gimhae International Airport—the official measurement station—typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with readings above 35°C occurring roughly once per decade during exceptional heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either scepticism about extreme heat materialising on that specific date, or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately resolve the contract.

August 2026 forecasting depends on several atmospheric patterns. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength, tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, and the Tibetan High's positioning all influence Korean peninsula temperatures. Recent years show increased frequency of heat domes affecting the region—the 2022 and 2023 summers saw multiple days exceeding 35°C across major cities. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal outlooks by June, providing early signals about summer intensity; traders should monitor those releases and any tropical system tracks that might alter wind patterns in early August.

The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary highs introduces a technical dependency. Gimhae Airport's automated station records sub-hourly readings, and discrepancies between peak instantaneous temperatures and daily summaries have historically occurred. Traders should verify the exact data pipeline and any historical gaps in the station's record before committing capital to extreme-temperature brackets.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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