Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

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Market context

Buenos Aires will be judged on the highest temperature recorded at Ministro Pistarini International Airport on 22 May, using Wunderground’s finalised station data. Late-May climatology is cool by local standards: WeatherSpark’s historical averages for Buenos Aires show daytime highs easing from about 19°C at the start of the month to around 16°C by month-end, with lows near 13°C to 11°C. That makes a result in the upper-teens Celsius the most typical outcome, while a low-20s print would already sit above normal for the date. With the market currently implying 0% for a “YES” outcome, the pricing is effectively treating the top end of the day’s range as very unlikely rather than impossible.

The main historical cue is that this is a shoulder-season temperature market, not a summer extreme. Buenos Aires can still produce brief warm spells in May, but the seasonal trend is downwards and cloud cover rises through the month, which tends to cap daytime heating. On comparable late-autumn days, the airport tends to settle in the mid-to-high teens Celsius unless there is a strong northerly airflow or unusually clear, dry conditions. For the market to resolve in a higher band, the station would need a distinctly warm afternoon before the daily maximum window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is the relevant settlement cutoff for traders.

The immediate catalysts are the morning synoptic setup, any passing frontal boundary, and whether cloud or drizzle suppresses the early-day rise in temperature. The airport reading is the source of record, so the city centre can feel different without changing settlement if Ezeiza remains cooler. In crypto terms, the contract pays in USDC, so the main practical issue is not exchange beta but the final station print versus the temperature bands listed in the market. If traders are watching broader risk sentiment, BTC and ETH volatility may matter only insofar as it affects on-chain positioning and willingness to take small-event weather exposure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.