Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, locking in the highest recorded temperature in Celsius across all daylight and evening hours. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity; either way, the market reflects genuine uncertainty about late-spring conditions in northern China.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing's airport station typically range between 25–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet consolidated around a consensus forecast. Comparable late-May conditions from 2015–2024 show high variability depending on whether subtropical air masses penetrate northward or cooler systems dominate; this ten-year band provides the most relevant baseline for calibrating position entry points.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, as these drive material revisions to seasonal expectations. Broader macro conditions—including whether an El Niño or La Niña pattern persists into northern hemisphere late spring—will influence atmospheric circulation patterns affecting Beijing. USDC settlement mechanics on btc-prediction.bet mean positions can be exited or adjusted as new meteorological data emerges, allowing traders to hedge against forecast shifts without waiting for final resolution.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.