Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. Late May in Beijing typically falls within the late spring transition period, with daily highs ranging between 28–32°C depending on synoptic patterns and moisture availability from the East Asian monsoon onset.

Historical May data from the Beijing station shows considerable year-to-year variance. The 30-year climatological mean for late May sits near 29°C, though extremes have reached 35°C in anomalously warm years and dipped to 22°C during cooler episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cold event or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable late-May conditions from 2015–2024 reveal that readings above 32°C occur roughly 20–30% of the time, whilst sub-25°C days are rare but not unprecedented during weak monsoon years or cold frontal passages.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the China Meteorological Administration and watch for any announced changes to station instrumentation or relocation protocols before May 2026. Broader atmospheric drivers—including the strength of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset—typically become clearer by mid-May. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, with USDC payouts tied to the finalised Wunderground record. Any significant discrepancies between station readings and archived data could affect settlement timing, making source verification critical for position holders.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.