Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and settled against Wunderground historical data. July is Beijing's warmest month, with average highs around 29–30°C, though extremes regularly exceed 35°C during heat waves. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning traders must commit positions before the full daily range is known in most Western time zones.

Historical July records at Beijing Capital Airport show temperatures have reached 40°C or higher on multiple occasions within the past two decades, most notably during the 2010 heat wave when readings approached 41°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-baseline outcome or minimal trading activity in this market. Comparable July 28 data points are sparse given the specific date, but the station's 30-year climatology indicates roughly a 15–20% chance of temperatures exceeding 37°C on any given late-July day, with sub-25°C outcomes exceptionally rare.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any issued heat warnings in early July 2026, as these typically signal multi-day high-pressure systems that drive extreme readings. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during mid-2026 will influence seasonal temperature patterns across East Asia. The USDC settlement mechanism means positions close at a fixed conversion rate; crypto volatility during the settlement window itself is immaterial to the underlying weather outcome, though it may affect market liquidity and bid–ask spreads in the hours before resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.